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Buckle (BKE) Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

The Buckle, Inc. BKE is slated to release first-quarter fiscal 2016 results on May 20. The big question facing investors is, whether this retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories will be able to deliver a positive earnings surprise in the quarter to be reported. In the trailing four quarters, the company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 0.2%. However, in the preceding quarter, it outperformed our estimate by 5.6%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Zacks Model Shows Unlikely Earnings Beat

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Buckle is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. Buckle has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate both stand at 55 cents. Moreover, the company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Factors Influencing this Quarter

Buckle has not been able to turn the performance of its struggling Women’s business around. This business contributed 51% to total sales during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015. We observe that the company’s total sales have declined so far in 2016. Net sales decreased 12.3% in April, 11% in March, 7.7% in February and 10.1% in January. On the other hand, comparable sales also declined 13.2% in April, 11.8% in March, 8.9% in February and 11.3% in January.

Analysts covering the stock are also cautious about the upcoming results. This is clearly evident from the downward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter over the past 90 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate declined approximately 14% over the said time frame.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

The Home Depot, Inc. HD has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW has an Earnings ESP of +2.38% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Best Buy Co., Inc. BBY has an Earnings ESP of +2.94% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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HOME DEPOT (HD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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BUCKLE INC (BKE): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
BEST BUY (BBY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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