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AUD/JPY at the Cusp of Bullish Continuation

The daily AUD/JPY broke above a multi-month consolidation resistance around 96.50 in August. After finding resistance at 98.67, it retreated but found support around the broken consolidation resistance at 96.50.Amid this breakout and pullback, the daily chart shows a bullish market with regards to price, moving averages, and the RSI reading. 

(AUD/JPY Daily Chart 9/18)

When we look at the 4H chart, we can see that there was a double bottom around 96.50 and now price is pushing at 97.50. Price has not cleared above all the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages in the 4H chart and the 4H RSI is still holding below 60. This shows that there is NOT bullish bias, and the bearish momentum is still in play - for now.

A break above 97.60 with the RSI popping above 60 should be a sign of bullish continuation with the 98.67 handle in sight. At this point, a break below 96.35 can throw a wrench in the whole bullish continuation scenario. We might then be in a deeper, medium-term consolidation, with downside risk to the middle of the previous consolidation in the daily chart - around 95.00.


(AUD/JPY 4H Chart 9/18)