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USD/CAD Approaching Multi-Month Consolidation Support

The USD/CAD retreated last week after failing to clear above 1.28 and extended lower on Friday after the disappointing US NFP report. As we can see in the daily chart, the pair is now approaching a consolidation range support in the 1.2350-1.24 area. 

USD/CAD Daily Chart 4/6
(click to enlarge)

If price breaks below 1.2350, we should look for a drive towards the 1.20 handle.

However, because the prevailing trend is still intact and very strong, we should first respect the range support and monitor the price movement in the 4H chart.

USD/CAD 4H Chart 4/6
(click to enlarge)

The 4H USD/CAD chart shows that the bears were not that impressive on Friday even after a very soft jobs report out of the US that most likely will detract the FOMC from raising rates mid-year. Now let's say there is a pullback. If the market is still bearish, we should see resistance around 1.2570-1.2575. This would keep the pair under the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs as well as the central pivot of the multi-month range.

A break above 1.26 however, would revive the bullish bias especially if the RSI also climbs back above 60. In this scenario, the mode would remain neutral-bullish in the medium-term with emphasis on the bullish component, and with pressure towards the highs around 1.28 again.