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Trinity Industries (TRN): Stock to Disappoint Q1 Earnings?

Trinity Industries Inc. TRN is set to release first-quarter 2016 results after the market closes on Apr 21.

Last quarter, the company had posted a positive earnings surprise of 21.50%. Moreover, the company’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the previous four quarters, with an average beat of 18.76%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Trinity Industries has provided a soft guidance for 2016. In particular, the first quarter is expected to be hurt primarily by choppy market conditions. In addition, railcar deliveries are anticipated to decline due to weak demand for railroad tank cars for the transportation of crude oil. Adverse foreign currency movement may also mar the company’s bottom line.

On the bright side, the company stands to benefit from a favorable financial position, along with moderate levels of debt.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Trinity is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or at least #3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, this is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: Trinity Industries has an Earnings ESP of 7.58%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at 71 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged lower at 66 cents.

Zacks Rank: Trinity carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). As it is, we caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider instead, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Canadian National Railway Company CNI with an Earnings ESP of +1.47% and a Zacks Rank #1.

NorfolkSouthern Corporation NSC with an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Ardmore Shipping Corporation ASC with an Earnings ESP of +4.17% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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