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Mapping China's Bursting Real Estate Bubble

With global growth concerns on the rise, whether a bust in the Chinese housing sector could threaten the economic activity and financial stability of the world’s largest contributor to growth is top of mind for Goldman Sachs. As Michael Pettis warns, "this story only has a few possible endings, all of which imply a significant reduction in economic growth as debt problems are addressed." The following 3 charts suggest Pettis is right...

Just the Facts...

 

Where The Pain is...

 

And The Policy Decisions...

 

Just remember, as Hui Sahn and Andy Tilton note, "Since easier credit pulls forward [housing] demand from the future, easing must be done judiciously to avoid precipitating an even larger correction later."

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So be careful what you wish for.