Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

AUD/USD to Challenge Falling Channel Resistance

AUD/USD has been bearish for most of April after the month's the year's high at 0.9460. This has been the most significant bearish correction in 2014. 


(audusd 4h chart, 5/4)

Some observations:
1) You can see that price held below a falling channel in the 4H chart.
2) Price cracked 0.9200, but ended the week to show there is support here.
3) The 4H RSI has been held below 60.
4) 0.9300-0.9315 is a key pivot area.

Bullish scenario:
A break above 0.9320 should clear the resistance factors, and therefore would suggest bullish continuation. In this scenario, the 0.9375-0.9390 will be the first resistance pivot before traders can be more confident of AUD/USD retesting the 0.9460 high.

Bearish scenario:
A break below 0.9200 however might clear below a rising trendline that comes up from the 0.8655, January and 2014 low. This would first open up the 0.91-0.9115 area, which was a previous resistance that might turn into support. Below that the 0.9050-0.9060 would be a key area for AUD/USD because it would be in the middle of 2014's price range for the pair.

At this point, I would prefer to trade the bullish scenario, and be cautious trading any bearish market unless it has broken below 0.9200 and offers a decent pullback to fade for a very short-term bearish outlook.