Chris Lau
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Chris Lau in Value Stocks,

​Stop it: Investing in Micron is Really not that Bad

Analysts slashed their estimates and price targets on Micron Technology (MU) after the company reported quarterly results on March 30. The fiscal second quarter results did not inspire confidence. The outlook was worse.

There are few positive metrics from Micron’s outlook for this year. Operating margin is 16 – 19%, capital expenditure is massive, operating losses in all segments, and Micron is operating on the down phase of the semiconductor cyclical cycle.

Investors might guess that the down cycle is at an end. It is possible. China and Korea (Samsung) must produce less competitive, lower quality products. Micron must release 3d xpoint and 3d NAND on time.

Free cash flow was negative, not due to a weak business, but because of higher capex. Micron is investing in its business.

Looking ahead, capex spend will hold profitability down for 2016. After new product launches and improving prices for NAND and DRAM in 2017 and beyond, Micron looks cheap from here. It has $5/share in cash.

2016 is a transition year. Partnership with Intel will pay off.

2017 is a growth year.

2018 is an upward trajectory for Micron.