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Will America Movil (AMX) Q1 Earnings be a Disappointment?

America Movil SAB AMX, the undisputed leader in the Mexican telecom market, is slated to release its first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, America Movil’s earnings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.50%. The company delivered negative earnings surprises in all the four trailing quarters, with the average miss coming to a whopping 54.37%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Likely to Influence this Quarter

Competition has intensified in the Mexican wireless market. Apart from America Movil’s traditional competitor Telefonica SA TEF, the U.S. telecom behemoth AT&T Inc.’s T entry into the Mexican telecom industry with the acquisition of Gurpo Iusacell and Nextel de Mexico is a major threat for America Movil.

America Movil follows an aggressive promotional strategy to increase its penetration in the smartphone market. The company is striving to increase its smartphone sales figures through promotional discounts and subsidized offers. However, these efforts may curtail margins and affect the overall profitability of the company. In addition, the expansion of PayTV and TracFone businesses is detrimental to the company’s growth as these carry low margin.

For the first time, the company’s profit margin in Mexico, its biggest market, fell below the 40% mark (to 36.7%) in fourth-quarter 2015. Stringent regulatory measures and intensifying competition in Mexico were the primary reasons for the poor performance. If this trend continues, it could deal a major blow to America Movil and weaken its market position.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that America Movil is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as elaborated below:

Zacks ESP: America Movil has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because, both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 26 cents.

Zacks Rank: America Movil has a Zacks Rank #5. Please note that we caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement.

A Stock to Consider

Here is a company you may consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Telefonica Brasil SA VIV has an Earnings ESP of +11.77% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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AT&T INC (T): Free Stock Analysis Report
TELEFONICA S.A. (TEF): Free Stock Analysis Report
AMER MOVIL-ADR (AMX): Free Stock Analysis Report
TELEF BRASIL SA (VIV): Free Stock Analysis Report
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