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Hugo in HTO Trading,

EURCHF: Making a six-month high

Euro zone finance ministers gave their final approval to lending Greece up to 86 billion euros after the parliament in Athens agreed to stiff conditions overnight. Assuming final approval this week by the German and some other national parliaments, an initial tranche of 26 billion euros would be approved by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) this Wednesday.

Analyst expectations for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Switzerland turned negative in July for the first time since February over heightened exchange rate uncertainty. But the expectations seem to have changed as the Swiss ZEW investor sentiment index rose by 11.3 points in August to 5.9 points. The Swiss franc has dropped nearly 5% since mid-July and touched a six-month low against the euro on last Tuesday.

The EURCHF is in an accumulation phase since the beginning of August breaking above the resistance zone established on February. The currency rallied last week but could not sustain the upward momentum and gave most of its gains back to the market, creating a potential shooting star pattern, but managed to close in the green above the open of the day. The stochastic in showing an extreme overbought market but even with the pair well into overbought territory, we should not fight the strong upward trend.

Expecting an upward move to a Fibonacci extension at 1.1285 on a break above previous week high at 1.0961 (scenario 1) or a break below the weekly resistance at 1.0620 could trigger a sell-off to a weekly support at 1.0367 (scenario 2).