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US Recession Looms As Factory Orders Plunge 9th Month In A Row

US Manufacturers saw new orders rise at a modest 0.4% in July (missing expectations of a 0.9%). However, year-over-year Factory Orders crashed 14.7% (thanks in large part to last year's Boeing order dropping out of the cycle). But even ex-Transports, New orders tumbled 0.6% in July and plunged 6.9% YoY. This is the 9th month in a row of YoY drops and is without doubt signalling an imminent US recession.

The breakdown as summarized by MNI: "The value of new factory orders rose 0.4% in  July, below the 0.7% increase expected in an MNI survey due to a sharp 1.3% drop in nondurables orders, data released by the Commerce Department Wednesday morning showed."

Total factory orders excluding transportation were down 0.6% in  July on the decline in nondurable goods orders that more than offset a 0.4% increase for durables orders outside of transportation. The nontransportation durables reading was a downward revision from the 0.6% gain in the advance estimate.

Once again, it's all about autos (subprime loans), and war: Transportation orders themselves were revised sharply higher to a  5.5% jump in July from the originally reported 4.7% rise; motor vehicles orders are now reported up 4.0%, while nondefense aircraft orders are reported down 6.1% and defense aircraft orders fell  13.1%. Orders for ships and boats were up 19.5%."

Headline Factory orders collapse.

 

and even adjusting out Boeing's huge order, it is a bloodbath.

 

Weather? Ports? What can 'they' blame this on? Doesn't matter - full steam ahead with the rate hike!

 

Charts: Bloomberg