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Hugo in HTO Trading,

Silver: Price bottoming!?

Rumors are that the fresh positions built up by speculators where sustained by a firm global trend on speculation that investors have factored in a US interest-rate increase, which may happen as early as next month, supported the upside in silver prices.

Global Financial turmoil and low silver prices motivated experienced precious metals investors to purchase record amounts of silver.  However, the market is starting to see a huge inflow of new and first-time gold and silver buyers.  According to Money Metal Exchange, they experienced a 365% increase in first-time buyers over the past 45 day period (June 16th-July 31st). This recent surge in buying has put a huge dent in the retail physical silver market and is now impacting the wholesale market.

The commodity since the beginning of the year fell more than 3.0% and is in a potential phase change from bearish to a recovery phase. Last week silver rose but at the end of the week gave some of its gains back but managed to close in the green near the high of the week, shy below the 10-week moving average. Stochastic is showing an oversold market but also now displaying bullish momentum, signs that the downside may begin to get exhausted.

Expecting an upward move to a weekly support zone at 16.27 on a break above the previous week high at 15.60 (scenario 1) or a bounce from a key level at 15.24 could throw the commodity upward to a weekly resistance at 17.80 (scenario 2).