Nick Nasad
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EUR/AUD - Will We Have A Break Of 1.4450?

The EUR/AUD is in an interesting position right now.

  • It seems that we have a bullish divergence between price and the RSI, and have caught support at the 100-EMA (in cyan) as well as an upward sloping support trendline.
  • The pair was unable to complete a full double-bottom projected move and is back to test the neckline of the original double top.
  • If we do have a break of the 1.4450 level, we have another important pivot just above at 1.4540, however after that it could be smooth sailing towards 1.4750 and even 1.4990.
  • That full swing would be the equivalent of 500 pips and does require some soft macro catalysts for the AUD, while at the same time some positive for the EUR.
  • Is that in the cards - we would have to pour over recent data and events to determine it - maybe a good assignment for the weekend?

- Nick