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Philip Morris Is A Buy For The Long Term

The stock has been beat up the past year due to some weak guidance and earnings. However, the fundamentals of the company haven't changed a bit. Sales and EPS on a currency neutral basis are up. They're simply being punished because their sales are in foreign currency, while their financials and dividends are in USD.

So why do I like Philip Morris? It's not that complicated. They generate so much cash flow it's obscene. Like most of my other individual holdings, PM has strong brands and a product that requires low capital expenditures and relatively low operating costs. They are also in a strong position to control pricing power. They create vast amounts of wealth from an incredibly small amount of capital. It's very silly to buy or sell a company because currency valuation is currently favorable or unfavorable to a particular business (excluding major collapses). The dollar was weak against the Euro for a decade. Now we seem to be best house in a bad neighborhood. It's not a reflection on the fundamentals of Philip Morris. Oftentimes it's a huge advantage to have your revenue coming from a basket of foreign currencies. At some point in the future this trend will reverse and suddenly PM will appear vastly more valuable than it's current price implies. Read more