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Texas Instruments (TXN) Q1 Earnings: What Lies in Store?

Texas Instruments Inc. TXN is set to report first quarter 2016 results on Apr 27. Last quarter, the company posted a 2.90% positive earnings surprise.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Texas Instruments or TI reported mixed fourth quarter results with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues missing the same. Though the communications, personal electronics and other markets were weak, the recovering auto and industrial markets helped the company to deliver good results.

Texas Instruments continues to prudently invest its R&D dollars in several high-margin, high-growth areas of the analog and embedded processing markets. This is gradually increasing its exposure to the industrial and automotive markets as well as dollar content at customers, while reducing its exposure to the volatile consumer/computing markets.

However, TI provided weak revenue guidance for the first quarter. The company expects revenues between $2.85 billion and $3.09 billion (down 6.9% sequentially at the mid-point). The outlook includes a revenue decline of about $150 million in a segment of the personal electronics market.

This revenue guidance reflects lackluster demand for personal electronics, particularly PCs, and communications equipment.

However, earnings per share in the quarter are expected to be in a range of 57 cents to 67 cents.

Texas Instruments, along with chipmaker Intel, remains one of the few semiconductor companies that depend on internal capacity for manufacturing the bulk of its devices. However, since it has the policy of building out capacity ahead of demand, it can make opportunistic purchases. As a result, the company has been able to contain capex at up to 4% of sales even while expanding.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Texas Instruments will beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 62 cents. Therefore, its Earnings ESP is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Texas Instruments’ Zacks Rank #3 when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

You may consider the following stocks, with a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank:

Himax Technologies, Inc. HIMX with an Earnings ESP of +16.67% and Zacks Rank #1

Silicon Motion Technology Corp. SIMO with an Earnings ESP of +7.27% and Zacks Rank #1

Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD, with an Earnings ESP of +1.65% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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SILICON MOTION (SIMO): Free Stock Analysis Report
HIMAX TECH-ADR (HIMX): Free Stock Analysis Report
GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD): Free Stock Analysis Report
TEXAS INSTRS (TXN): Free Stock Analysis Report
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