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Bill Dudley Gives 2015 Rate Hike Odds, Even As He Says "Not Calendar Guidance"

When is a 'date' not a 'date'? When a Fed member says so. The Fed speaker confusion-carpet-bombing contonues this morning with Bill Dudley who offered the following "insight":

  • *DUDLEY: HE EXPECTS FED PROBABLY WILL RAISE RATES LATER THIS YR (so a date?)
  • *DUDLEY: THAT'S NOT CALENDAR GUIDANCE, THAT'S DATA-DEPENDENT (not a date?)

His double-speak has sent stocks and bonds lower and USD higher for now...

 

Given this reaction (stocks down) and Dudley's previous admission that Fed policy is market-data-dependent:

  • *DUDLEY: FED RATE PATH WILL BE SHAPED PARTLY BY MKT REACTION

It appears The Fed will not raise rates soon.. and Fed Funds Futures agree...

 

Charts: Bloomberg