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USD/JPY Trading at Trendline Resistance Ahead of NFP

Traders are always vigilant when the NFP report comes around. This week it will be on Thursday because Friday is 7/4, Independence Day in the US. 

The USD has been weak due to a big downside revision the Q1 GDP in the US. It came in at -2.9% on the year. Now Q2 growth is questioned. 

However today's ADP Employment Change reading came in at 281K, beating forecast around 207K and the previous reading of 179K. This suggests tomorrow's NFP will be in-line with forecast or better. 

The USD/JPY found a bottom this week and rallied after the ADP jobs data as traders anticipate a better-than-expected NFP release.


(usdjpy 4H chart, 7/2)

However, you can see that traders are tentative because price has stalled under the falling trendline from June. 

I think the 102 area will be crucial. If USD/JPY pops above 102 after the dust settles, then USD/JPY is back in consolidation mode. Otherwise, USD/JPY remains bearish and the 101.76 level will be in sight. If the NFP misses forecast and even misses 200K, then we should not be surprised if USD/JPY makes new lows on the year.