Vladislav Shchukin
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Hasbro. For Players.

   One of the most interesting segments in the consumer goods industry is the production and sale of toys and board games. One of the main representatives of this segment is the company Hasbro.

   The engine sales for the segment of toys and board games are the licenses to use the characters and stories of the trend films, cartoons and video games. 2015 is successful enough due to the release of toys and board games on the subject of films “Transformers”, “the Marvel Universe” and “My Little Pony”. This is clearly seen on the company's revenue in the last quarter.

   Highly differentiated products and the target audience (children) cause high marginal sales. Hasbro dominant position in the market is recognized in these indicators (Gross Margin, Price to sales): lower price elasticity of demand for popular toys at the moment.

   The company operates in the area characterized by a pronounced seasonality and high no systemic risk. On the other hand, share prices poorly correlate with the market index and well-suited for portfolio diversification. Hasbro hedge seasonal risks of sustainability of projects such as the “Monopoly” and “Magic the Gathering”, which have a stable consumer demand and the target audience.

   It is possible to trace the dynamics of the ups and downs of stock prices as a result of strategic decisions related to the theme of goods and services.

   At the end of 2008, the company significantly expanded its business in the area of premium toy, which together with the sorrowful economic situation had a negative impact on sales and share price. In 2011, Hasbro engaged in the development of TV-transmission instead of the more attractive online content. In 2014-2015 the explosive growth was driven by the line “Marvel” and “My Little Pony” toys, which are now at the peak of popularity.

   Consider more preciously the reaction of Hasbro investors to the release of significant films and production of related products. In July 2014” the Guardians of the Galaxy” film starts and the price rises from $50 to $58. Then at around $64 in May “Avengers: Age of Ultron” was released and price rise to $82. After this quotation drops to $70 in July, and with the release of Fantastic Four back to $80.

   At the moment, the company has found a successful niche and create a balanced portfolio of assets, aimed at different age and preferences of the audience. With an exclusive contract for the production of toys for the films and the largest international goal of distribution in the industry, we can expect further growth of Hasbro.

   We believe that now is the best time to engage in a long position: the shares fell back slightly from the peak of $80 to $76, but soon the traditional New Year's sales growth. In addition, it is planned premiere of the new film in the series of “Star Wars” in 2016 and Hasbro has unique rights to produce a variety of toys and other products related to this film.

   Our recommendation – HOLD.