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AB InBev (BUD) Q1 Earnings: Surprise in Store for Stock?

The world’s largest alcoholic-beverage company, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV BUD, alias AB InBev, is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 4, before the opening bell. In the last quarter, the company had delivered a positive earnings surprise of 19.1%.

Additionally, the company delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 5.9% in the trailing four quarters. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.



Factors Influencing This Quarter

The Budweiser owner made a comeback with a positive earnings surprise in the last quarter, which followed negative earnings surprises in the preceding two quarters. The company remains hopeful of continuing this momentum in 2016.

On the other hand, the company remains well positioned to gain from the boon in the craft beer segment and is making all efforts to tackle competition through new acquisitions. Also, the company will gain from the completion of its merger with SABMiller. While these efforts point to long-term success, we cannot ignore the fact that the company’s volume growth may be slightly impacted by the entry of new participants in the craft beer segment, which is currently the hottest-selling beer category. With all these factors at play, we would like to wait and see what’s in store for AB InBev for the upcoming quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that AB InBev is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP for AB InBev is currently -9.20%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate of 79 cents is below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87 cents.

Zacks Rank: AB InBev carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Church & Dwight Co. Inc. CHD, scheduled to report earnings on May 5, has an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Home Depot Inc. HD, scheduled to report earnings on May 17, has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Urban Outfitters Inc. URBN, scheduled to report earnings on May 18, has an Earnings ESP of +8.00% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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ANHEUSER-BU ADR (BUD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
HOME DEPOT (HD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
URBAN OUTFITTER (URBN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CHURCH & DWIGHT (CHD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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