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EUR/AUD (Video) - Awaiting Breakout

The 1H EUR/AUD chart shows a market that has been drifting up from 1.3710, which was the low on the year, just below the 2014-low at 1.3788. Let’s examine the technical development since this rebound.

The 1H chart shows that after drifting higher, the EUR/AUD started to trade sideways around the 1.39-1.3950 area for the most part. However, volatility has been fluxing, and was most wild when it dipped to 1.3803 and then right back up to 1.4070 within a few hours during the 3/18 session. The volatility has died down since.

Now the market is awaiting a breakout from consolidation set by the wild swing. But maybe we can take some clues from the smaller range. A break above 1.40 would likely be enough of an indicator for further bullish outlook in the short-term to 1.4070 and 1.41. A break below 1.3860 however would maintain a bearish trend that has been in force since at least February as we can see in the 4H chart. This would put pressure back on the 2015-low at 1.3710.