Nick Nasad
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EUR/USD - Impressive Week Ends With Pair Near 9-Month Highs

The EUR/USD has had an impressive week, breaking higher following a test of the support of its recent 3/4 week range. The impulsive push on Thursday managed to break key downward sloping trendlines as well as horizontal pivots (the Oct 3rd highs at 1.3645).

  1. The initial impression is that following the bullish impulsive price action, the pair may is stretched, and therefore may set up a range between 1.3660 and 1.37.
  2. However, the fact that the EUR has managed to break out of its wider, more medium term, 3-4 week consolidation range, means that we should be on the look out primarily for a continuation scenario.
  3. Upside targets include 1.3820 and 1.39.
  4. The EUR/USD was last near the 1.37 handle back in late January of this year (10 months). If you zoom out to a weekly chart, you can see that it will be an important test/catalyst for moves to the upside. 
  5. After such a move, an aggressive approach would be to play a break-out of 1.37 in anticipation of an immediate continuation phase. A more cautious/conservative approach, would be to wait for a pullback back to key horizontal pivots (old levels of resistance turned to support). In general, to buy into a uptrend, entries should be made following a retracement to support levels, like the bottom of a range. In essence, to "buy the dip". A move back to 1.3630 or 1.36 would be interesting.

Let's see how the EUR/USD starts next week, and the what the markets focus turns to now that the US government shutdown and debt ceiling "crisis" is over. I'm guessing its back to the US data, what it means for the FOMC, and the transition of the Chairmanship to Janet Yellen from Ben Bernanke.

- Nick