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"Historic" Blizzard To Slam Northeast On Monday Night: Over A Foot Of Snow Expected In New York City

If there were still any doubts whether the Fed would delay its "consensus" June rate hike, those just died a quiet death as a result of the latest "GDP-crushing" weather update, which according to the weather channel, will see Winter Storm Juno, currently located just south of the Great Lakes, transform into a blizzard for the Northeast Monday and Tuesday, and which will result in the accumulation of more than a foot of snow in places likes New York City and 2 feet or more in Boston.

This is how the National Weather Service's forecast office in Boston summarized what is about to be unleashed on Sunday morning:

CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

And with that out of the say, here is where Juno is located currently.

 

Where it is going.

 

And how much snow it will bring:

According to the Weather Channel, blizzard watches have already been issued from parts of southern New England, including Boston and Providence, to New York City and northeast New Jersey. A winter storm watch is in place for the Philadelphia metro area.

Key points:

  • Moderate-to-heavy snow likely from portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic (New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania) to New England.
  • Peak impacts late Monday through Tuesday.
  • Accumulations of 1 to 2 feet likely (locally 2+ feet possible).
  • Blizzard or near-blizzard conditions will make travel impossible.
  • Flight cancellations, major delays and possible airport closures late Monday through Tuesday.
  • Damaging wind gusts and coastal flooding also expected.
  • Lighter snowfall from the Midwest to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Sunday into early Monday.

Some more tips from the Weather Channel: "Now is the time to prepare and make sure you have the supplies you need for this major, possibly historic, winter storm. Do not proceed with any travel plans in the affected areas late Monday and Tuesday."

The details:

  • A widespread area of 1 to 3 inches of snow is likely from parts of northern Illinois through northern Indiana and Ohio. Heavier totals of up to 4 or 5 inches are possible in a narrow corridor through central Ohio.
  • By far, the heaviest snowfall amounts from Juno are expected from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to New England. As shown on our forecast map, here is what can be expected in the Northeast:
  • Washington, D.C. could see some light snow accumulations late Sunday night into Monday, but the heaviest amounts will likely stay to the north and west of the city.
    More than 6 inches of snow is possible in the Philadelphia metro area.
  • The New York City area is forecast to see a foot or more of heavy snow. Near-blizzard conditions possible.
  • Parts of eastern and southern New England, including Boston, Providence, Rhode Island and Portland, Maine, have the potential to see up to 2 feet of snow. Locally more than 2 feet of snow is possible, particularly in eastern Massachussetts. The snow will be accompanied by blizzard or near-blizzard conditions.
  • Snowfall rates of more than 2 inches per hour are possible during the peak of the storm Monday night into Tuesday.

The day by day forecast:

  • Sunday Night: Snow or a rain/snow mixuture sweeps through the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic.

     

  • Monday: Light to moderate snow from southern New York to the central Appalachians. A rain and snow mixture is expected near the I-95 corridor in Washington, D.C. By later in the afternoon, the storm will begin to crank up, spreading snow from the coastal Mid-Atlantic northward to Long Island.

     

  • Monday evening through overnight: Juno's peak impacts begin and continue through the overnight from parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey through New England. Snow and strong winds will create blizzard conditions, making travel very dangerous or impossible.

     

  • Tuesday: Peak impacts from Juno continue from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania to New England. Travel will continue to be dangerous or impossible.

     

  • Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Snow continues in New England, winding down from south to north.

And some more GDP-devastating predictions from Mashable:

The storm may prompt the virtual shutdown of large portions of New Jersey, southeastern New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island between Monday night and Tuesday night, as it whips up winds gusting to 70 miles per hour or more, along with snowfall rates approaching 4 inches per hour at times.

 

The timing of the worst weather looks to be between late Monday into Tuesday for New York City, where forecast uncertainty is a bit higher than for southern New England, since it could on the western edge of the areas of heaviest snowfall. Blizzard watches are in effect for northern New Jersey and New York City from late Monday into Tuesday night, with snowfall totals possibly reaching as high as 2 feet even in the city itself.

 

A blizzard watch means there is a potential for blizzard conditions, whereas a blizzard warning would indicate a high likelihood of imminent blizzard conditions. Warnings may be issued as soon as Sunday night, depending on additional weather data.

Finally, the biggest question is for Bill de Blasio: will NYC's relatively new mayor learn from last year's poor snowfall removal embarrassment or is even more humiliation about to be piled on the mayor who is now actively boycotted by at least a portion of the New York City police?

One of the most uncertain aspects of the forecast concerns locations on the western periphery of the heavy snow shield.

 

This would include places like the Hudson Valley of New York, New York City and much of central and northern New Jersey. Snowfall totals in these areas could range from a relatively modest 6 inches — if the storm drifts just a bit further east than currently forecast — or closer to 2 feet, as currently forecast for a track that hugs the coastline.

 

This storm could prove to be a major test for New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio, who was criticized last winter for the poor snowfall removal performance of city plows during a more modest storm. Also to be tested is Boston's new mayor, Martin J. Walsh, who was sworn in on Jan. 6, 2014, and has not been at the helm of the city during such a high-impact storm. Mayoral elections have previously been won or lost based mainly on snow-removal performance.

 

The big northeastern cities have yet to see a major snowstorm so far this winter, which could heighten the impacts of a powerful storm like this — much like a heat wave that hits in May rather than in August, when people are more accustomed to hot temperatures. A weaker storm did bring several inches of snow over the weekend, but mainly to inland areas of southern New England.

One thing is clear: Q1 GDP, whatever the always wrong consensus thought it would be until this week, just plunged by ~1.5%. Because a winder storm in the winter, now that is truly unprecedented, especially when it happens for the second year in a row.