By now, we are all aware of the fact that the Q1 earnings season, which has just taken off, is going to be a soft one. Earnings of the S&P 500 index are likely to decline 10.3% in the first quarter while revenues are expected to fall 0.6% as per issued on April 14, 2016 (read: ).
The key drag was the energy sector as evident from the 5.2% expected Q1 earnings decline from the ex-oil S&P 500 index, Revenues enter the growth territory (up 2.4%) if we rule out the energy sector weakness from the S&P 500. Notably, the energy sector is expected to report a 105.8% decline in earnings for Q1 on 29.8% lower revenues.
But then, the other 15 sectors constituting the S&P 500 index (as per Zacks methodology) are not sturdy enough. Only six sectors will likely post mild-to-positive earnings growth this season with acute recessionary impact expected in basic materials (down 23.8%), industrial products (down 25.7%) and conglomerates (down 23.7%).
Needless to say, stocks and the related ETFs will come under pressure post earnings releases of such sectors. Investors might be at a loss as to where to bet their money to reap the return of a bull market, without being perturbed by earnings weakness.
For them, below are four sector ETFs that have soared to the top Zacks Ranks (#1 or #2) at the threshold of the earnings season (read: ).
Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF () – #2 (Buy) to #1 (Strong Buy)
Technology ETFs were badly hit in the first quarter of 2016, having returned minutely or posting massive losses as risk-off sentiments loomed large. However, things took a turn for the better lately as a flurry of upbeat U.S. economic data and a dovish Fed whet investors’ risk appetite.
The sector is expected to post 6.7% decline in earnings on 2.6% revenue growth. So, investors intending a momentum play in the tech space can bet on RYT which is an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Information Technology Index and gives exposure to a broader technology sector. RYT has a Medium risk outlook.
Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight HealthCare ETF () – #3 (Hold) to #1
The scenario was almost the same for the broader healthcare sector which returned to health recently. A biotech rebound, compelling valuation, increasing merger and acquisition activities and several important product approvals act as tailwinds to the sector.
The broader medical sector is projected to post 0.9% growth in earnings in Q1 on bumper 9.1% higher revenues. No points for guessing why investors should target this space right now. An intriguing bet on this sector is RYH which is an unmanaged equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Health Care Index. RYH has a Medium risk outlook.
Market Vectors Gaming ETF () – #3 to #1
This gaming sector falls into the consumer discretionary category, which should be on a smooth road ahead on compelling valuation, expectations of a longer low-rate environment due to a dovish Fed and a softer dollar driving earnings of companies with considerable exposure in foreign lands.
The consumer discretionary space looks better placed than many other sectors for the first-quarter earnings season. The sector is likely to record 1.8% earnings growth on 5.8% growth in revenues (read: ).
The fund, BJK, gives investors exposure to the overall performance of the largest and most liquid companies in the global gaming industry. From a country look, U.S. takes the top spot at 34.0% while Australia and China round off the top three with a double-digit exposure each.
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap ETF () – #3 to #2
As the U.S. Treasury bond yields are hovering at lower levels despite a slowly improving economy, the outlook for real estate is looking up. The sector performs well in a low-yield environment while a growing economy ensures demand for real estates.
Investors can bet on this trend via ROOF which is made up of small-cap stocks – the best capitalization to play the recovering domestic economy. Plus, ROOF yields about 5.80% annually (as of April 14, 2016) and can act as a decent income destination for investors.
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