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X (AAPL Earnings)

Apple is expected to report fiscal fourth quarter earnings tonight after the close. There will be a conference call at 17:00 (the company typically guides in the press release).

Q4 Capital IQ consensus calls for EPS of $1.87 (versus $1.67 last year) on revenue of $50.76 bln (+8.3% YoY). The current consensus is within the company's guidance of $49-52 bln.

The company is expected to guide for the first quarter where consensus stands at $85.73 bln.

Key Points From Last Quarter

  • Taking a look at last quarter, the company reported Q3 iPhone sales of 41.0 mln versus 47.5 mln last year.
  • The company also reported Q3 iPad sales of 11.4 mln versus 10.9 mln last year.
  • Apple reported Q3 Mac sales of 4.3 mln versus 4.4 mln last year.
  • The company reported Q3 gross margin of 38.5% versus 38% in the same quarter as last year.

iPhone 8, X, and Other Notes:

  • Phone 8 started selling at the tail end of the fiscal fourth quarter. iPhone X pre-orders began on October 27. All of those sales will be in the first quarter. The Q1 guidance that the company gives could give an indication on how early iPhone X sales are going.


Based on AAPL options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 27%, which is 43% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). Based on the Weekly Nov03 AAPL $165 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~5% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).