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Gold Loses Shine Ahead of Yellen

Told prices fell sharply today, from last week's 1345, to about 1310. It is about to test recent consolidation lows around 1306.

The candlestick on the daily chart reflects exhaustion. It also suggests bearish price action ahead. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart 7/14


I would compare it to the bearish engulfing candle we saw when gold found resistance at 1388 and established as the high on the year. The RSI in both cases came off recent overbought levels. The strong bearish push after seeing overbought conditions is a sign of exhaustion. Gold might not be bearish, but it has also just failed to establish bullish momentum in the 4H chart as the RSI dropped below 40.
AUD/USD 4H Chart 7/14

If price falls below 1305, we can expect a bearish swing toward the 1270-1280 area, the lows in April through May. 

Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak on Tuesday and Wednesday in her semi-annual testimony in front of congress. She will answer questions regarding the Fed's monetary policy. How will she navigate questions regarding timing of the next rate hike? This will be important. The market is putting on USD-strength, and therefore not expecting Yellen to push back the rate hike to late 2015. Thus, if Yellen puts this "delay" on the table, the USD should be pressured, and gold might start remain bullish. Otherwise, without solid clues on a rate hike delay, traders should expect the rate hike to be around mid-2015. In this scenario, gold will likely see today's candle as exhaustion, and keep consolidating around the middle of this year's price action (between 1180 and 1388), around 1290, and around the 200-day SMA.

As I wrap up this article, price is already cracking that previous consolidation low, and we are likely to see some more slide coming, though we should probably see some near-term support around 1300 first.