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AUDUSD: Jumps on upbeat FOMC minutes

The Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was relatively flat throughout the 2nd quarter of 2015 as global commodity prices remained severely depressed. The GDP result was well below expectations, indicating growth of 0.2% quarter- on-quarter in the wider economy. This represents the weakest period of growth since early 2013, and data from the third quarter is likely to follow the same path, when released in December.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to hold off on raising rates last month and a disappointing September payrolls report appear to have given traders confidence that US policy makers won’t rush a rate hike. Minutes of their last meeting showed officials put off an increase because of growing risks, mainly from China, to their outlook for economic growth and inflation.

The AUDUSD rose 4.4% since the start of the month and plunged 9.5% year to date, plus is in well-established recovery phase. The currency rose last week with a wide range after a clear break of a four-week consolidation and closed in the green near the high of the week. The Stochastic is showing a bullish momentum although it is still below the 50 mid line.

Expecting an upward move to a weekly resistance at 0.7533 on a break above previous week high at 0.7344 (scenario 1) or wait for a retracement and bounce off a key level at 0.7234 (scenario 2).