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Forex Recap - Risk Appetite and Yen Weakness: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Gold

We start a busy week in the markets with some bullish (risk-on) inclination. Janet Yellen's dovish speech contributed to this risk appetite, but it seems tentative, and understandably so because key event risks are ahead of us on Thursday and Friday.

USD/JPY continued to rally this week, extend a bullish swing that pushed above last week's high at 102.68. The stochastic level suggests the market is overbought in the near-term, and we can see some intra-session pullback. However, after resolving this near-term bearish cycle, the USD/JPY looks poised to test the March high of 103.75 and perhaps  even 104, but further rally might be limited because traders will be anticipating Friday's US NFP.


(USD/JPY 4H Chart 3/31)

EUR/JPY was moved by both EUR-strength and JPY-weakness. The market pushed it above the recent consolidation high near 142. After resolving the current overbought condition in the 4H chart (stochastic > 80), the upside is toward the 143.78 March high. However it would be tough to break that level ahead of the ECB policy statement on Thursday unless we have word that the ECB is definitely NOT considering cutting rates.


(EUR/JPy 4H Chart 3/31)


The price action in gold also reflected the risk-on flow during the 3/31 session. There was a brief consolidation between 1285 and 1300. However, the market pushed below support, and is now looking at 1262.25, 61.8% retracement level, as the next possible support. 

(Gold 4H chart 3/31)