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Henry Schein (HSIC) Q1 Earnings: Can the Stock Surprise?

Henry Schein, Inc.HSIC is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 financial numbers on May 3, before the opening bell. 

Last quarter, the company posted a positive earnings surprise of 1.21%. Also, Henry Schein’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in 3 of the past 4 quarters, with an average beat of 1.87%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Factors at Play

Henry Schein closed the VetStreet acquisition and penned the agreement to take over RxWorks at the beginning of 2016. Both of these acquisitions are expected to boost Henry Schein’s veterinary business, with the first one contributing to its first quarter revenues.

During 2015, the company made steady share repurchases which reflects its strong cash reserve. At the end of 2015, Henry Schein had approximately $400 million authorized for future repurchase of its common stock. We believe the company will continue similar share repurchases which will be reflected in its first-quarter results.

As far as the company’s bottom-line results are concerned, Henry Schein expects EPS growth to be in the mid to high-single digits on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter. However, sales are likely to decline in the quarter, as has been the case in the trailing quarters. Similarly, operating expenses, as a percentage of sales, are likely to increase as management believes that certain fixed expenses and non-variable compensation expenses will be relatively higher in the first quarter, compared to the remaining quarters of 2016.

In terms of end-markets, Henry Schein expects to observe a stable sales trend in the first quarter. In Jan 2016, the company witnessed strong organic sales growth, which management expects to witness for the entire first quarter as well.

On the flip side, the company has been facing high restructuring costs over the past few quarters. Management expects restructuring costs to remain high in the first half of 2016, which might get reflected in the first quarter’s results. Moreover, headwinds in the form of increased competition in the medical product distribution market as well as market uncertainties continue to hurt the stock.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Henry Schein is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP:  Henry Schein has an earnings ESP of 0.00%.That is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.39.

Zacks Rank: Henry Schein has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, a 0.00 % ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarter:  

PAREXEL International Corporation PRXL, earnings ESP of +2.25% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD, earnings ESP of +1.65% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. ZBH, earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD): Free Stock Analysis Report
HENRY SCHEIN IN (HSIC): Free Stock Analysis Report
PAREXEL INTL CP (PRXL): Free Stock Analysis Report
ZIMMER BIOMET (ZBH): Free Stock Analysis Report
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