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EUR/CAD Trying to Break a Triangle Support

The EUR/CAD has been forming a descending triangle in February after a brief rally at the end of January. There is not sense of direction in the medium-term, but in the near-term, price action appears to be bearish, and threatening to break the descending triangle support around 1.4073. 

EUR/CAD 4H Chart 2/20
(click to enlarge)

A break below the triangle support might actually be a sign of a larger bearish continuation. When we look at the daily chart, we can see a bearish market in 2014 that has turned choppy since September. We can say that there has been an expanded consolidation range. However, in February, price failed to push above 1.45, and held below the 200-day SMA. The respect to the moving average as well as the failure to continue expansion of the range suggests that bears are in charge and that the consolidation mode might be over.

First there is downside to the 1.39 support pivot, then the 1.3753 low on the year, with risk of extending lower in continuation of the 2014 bear trend.

EUR/CAD Daily Chart 2/20

(click to enlarge)