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Ford (F) to Report Q1 Earnings: Will It Outshine Estimates?

Ford Motor Co. F is set to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28. In the last quarter, the company had delivered a positive earnings surprise of 18.37%. Further, the automaker managed to beat earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in one, delivering a positive average surprise of 11.17%. Let us see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Ford is likely to beat earnings this season because it has the right combination of the two key components.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is currently pegged at +11.63%. A favorable Zacks ESP serves as a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise. 

Zacks Rank: Ford currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Note that stocks with a Zacks Ranks #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. Conversely, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Ford’s Zacks Rank #3 and positive ESP make us reasonably confident of a positive earnings beat.

What is Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

Ford reported strong sales volumes in all major markets for the first quarter, which should significantly augment revenues. The company’s U.S. sales increased 9% to 645,626 vehicles, the best since 2006. Ford’s China sales also improved 14% year over year to 314,454 vehicles in the quarter. Sales in Europe increased 8.5% to 363,500 vehicles.

Ford’s impressive product launches are helping boost sales volume. Moreover, the company expects profits from Europe and Asia Pacific to improve this year. This leads to expectation of good results from these regions in the first quarter.

However, Ford expects weak margins from North America and higher losses in South America this year. The automaker’s South American operation has been facing challenges due to weakness in the industry, unfavorable exchange rates, high inflation, capital controls and changing regional trade policies.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Lear Corp. LEA has an Earnings ESP of +2.12% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is expected to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 27.

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. AXL has an Earnings ESP of +7.04% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company’s first-quarter 2016 financial results are scheduled for release on May 6.

Ferrari N.V. RACE has an Earnings ESP of +12.5% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report first-quarter 2016 financial numbers on May 2.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=RPT_7BST_LP194&... blog">Click to get this free report >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
FORD MOTOR CO (F): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
AMER AXLE & MFG (AXL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
LEAR CORPORATN (LEA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
FERRARI NV (RACE): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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