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Stock Market Outlook for October 14, 2015


Possible double-top in the Forward 12-Month EPS of the S&P 500 presents concerns for the long-term direction of the large-cap benchmark.


Real Time Economic Calendar provided by


**NEW** As part of the ongoing process to offer new and up-to-date information regarding seasonal and technical investing, we are adding a section to the daily reports that details the stocks that are entering their period of seasonal strength, based on average historical start dates.   Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSE:CMG) Seasonal Chart

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD) Seasonal Chart

Cameco Corporation (TSE:CCO) Seasonal Chart

CAE, Inc. (TSE:CAE) Seasonal Chart

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (NYSE:SWK) Seasonal Chart

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:CCE) Seasonal Chart

EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) Seasonal Chart

ProMetic Life Sciences Inc. (TSE:PLI) Seasonal Chart


The Markets

Stocks traded off of their recent highs on Tuesday as broad market benchmarks start to show early signs of exhaustion.  Traders are waiting to gauge the strength of the ongoing earnings season over the coming weeks to determine the next steps to take as the calendar moves further into the fourth quarter.  According to Factset’s Earnings Insight, Q3 2015 is expected to realize a decline in earnings of 5.5%.  If confirmed, this would mark the first back-to-back quarters of earnings declines since 2009.  Of concern is the impact that the negative expectations are having on the Forward 12-Month EPS for the S&P 500.  Earnings expectations continue to roll over, forcing what appears to be a double top in the forward 12-month EPS around $130.  The last time the indicator charted a double-top pattern was in 2008, which led to the significant downturn in equity prices in the months that followed.  This is a lagging indicator, but it could confirm the weakness that has been recorded in equity prices over the past couple of months, should the trend continue.  The S&P 500 Index is presently turning lower around minor resistance around 2020.  Major hourly moving averages on the short-term chart continue to point higher, keeping positive momentum intact over the near-term.  Potential short-term support could be found at the recently broken level of resistance around 1990.

Pulling on the major equity benchmarks on Tuesday were Transportation and Biotech stocks, one becoming strained due to the recent pickup in energy commodity prices and the other continuing to be pressured as a result of scrutiny surrounding the drug pricing practices within the industry.  Each of these industries, transportation and biotech, have broader implications of risk sentiment, as does the performance of momentum and small-cap stocks.  Biotech, which are inevitably a component of the momentum segment of stocks, and small caps continue to underperform the broad market as investors manage risk.  The trend continues to be towards the largest of the large, the S&P 100, representing the largest 100 publicly traded companies in the United States.  While not necessarily an indication of potential weakness ahead, the outperformance of the S&P 100 index suggests that investors are looking for stability, avoiding the added risk that is implied by stocks with lower market capitalizations.  Since the end of 2008, the relative trend of the S&P 100 index versus the S&P 500 index has been negative as investors take on that additional risk premium.  That long-term declining trendline is presently being tested.

On Friday, the latest report on wholesale trade was released.  While the headline print typically focuses on inventories, which rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, inline with the consensus estimate, the sales component perhaps warranted greater attention.  Wholesale sales declined by 3.6% in August, exactly the inverse of the average for the month, which is an increase of 3.6%.  The year-to-date change for wholesale sales remains well below the average trend, weighed down by both durable and non-durable goods, both of which typically tick higher in the month.  The impact of lower commodity prices remains evident.  Retail Sales for September will be released this morning at 8:30am ET.

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.90.




Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:



S&P 500 Index



TSE Composite