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Morning Call For Tuesday, Oct. 31

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.14%) this morning are up +0.16% and European stocks are up +0.24% at a 2-year high. Gains in European stocks are leading U.S. stocks higher after Eurozone Q3 GDP rose at a stronger-than-expected +2.5% y/y pace, the most in 5-1/2 years. Also, the Eurozone Sep unemployment rate fell to a 7-1/2 year low of 8.9% and after Eurozone Oct inflation unexpectedly slowed as the Oct core CPI fell below 1.0% for the first time in 5-months. Gains in equities were limited on Chinese growth concerns after the China Oct manufacturing PMI fell more than expected. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan unch, Hong Kong -0.32%, China +0.09%, Taiwan +0.34%, Australia -0.17%, Singapore -0.06%, South Korea +0.97%, India -0.16%. Japanese stocks settled little changed after the BOJ maintained its benchmark rate and asset purchase target but raised its Japan 2017 GDP forecast and lowered its core inflation estimate.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.19%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.07%) are down -3 ticks.

The Eurozone Oct CPI estimate rose +1.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.5% y/y. The Oct core CPI rose +0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.1% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 5-months.

The Eurozone Sep unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 8.9% from a downward revised 9.0% in Aug, better than expectations of -0.1 to 9.0% and a 7-1/2 year low.

Eurozone Q3 GDP rose +0.6% q/q and +2.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% q/q and +2.4% y/y with the +2.5% y/y gain the fastest pace of growth in 5-1/2 years.

The China Oct manufacturing PMI fell -0.8 to 51.6, weaker than expectations of -0.4 to 52.0.

The BOJ with an 8-1 vote kept its benchmark rate at -0.1% and its 10-year bond yield target at 0.0% with no change to its bond buying pace in Nov from Oct. The BOJ also raised their Japan 20178 GDP forecast to 1.9% from a previous forecast of 1.8% and lowered its Japan 2017 core inflation estimate to 0.8% from an earlier estimate of 1.1%.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Q3 employment index (expected +0.7%, Q2 +0.5%), (2) Aug S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home prices (expected +0.40% m/m and +5.9% y/y, Jul +0.35% m/m and +5.81% y/y), (3) Oct Chicago PMI (expected -5.2 to 60.0, Sep +6.3 to 65.2), (4) Oct Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence (expected +1.2 to 121.0, Sep -0.6 to 119.8), (5) FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.


Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Mastercard (consensus $1.23), Cummins (2.46), Aetna (2.08), Kellogg (0.94), Pfizer (0.65), ADM (0.56), Electronic Arts (0.55), Under Armour (0.19), Mosaic (0.18).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Gabelli & Company Automotive Aftermarket Symposium on Mon-Tue, VancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference on Thu-Fri, American College of Rheumatology Meeting on Fri, North American Cystic Fibrosis Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Burlington Stores (BURL -2.06%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q3 comparable sales up +3.1%, higher than a prior view of up 2%-3%.

Cray (CRAY +4.71%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $79.7 million, well above consensus of $59.5 million.

Exact Sciences (EXAS -2.07%) jumped nearly 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $72.6 million, higher than consensus of $65.1 million, and then raised guidance on full-year revenue to $254 million-$257 million from a prior view of $230 million-$240 million, above consensus of $244.6 million.

Tyson Foods (TSN +0.61%) was initiated with a recommendation of 'Overweight' at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a 12-month target price of $82.

Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN -1.49%) jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net sales of $595 million, well above consensus of $533.6 million.

Salesforce.com (CRM unch) was initiated with a 'Buy' recommendation at Guggenheim Securities with a 12-month target price of $125.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH -1.49%) slid over 1% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2017 labor inflation rising 7%-8%, higher than previous guidance of mid-single digit inflation.

Olin (OLN +0.93%) fell almost 3% in after-hours trading it reported Q3 adjusted Ebitda of $265.5 million, less than consensus of $266.4 million, and then said it sees Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $280 million, weaker than consensus of

Luminex (LMNX +0.15%) gained nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 25 cents, higher than consensus of 19 cents.


Omega Healthcare (OHI -2.46%) lost 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 operating revenue of $219.6 million, below consensus of $237 million.

Nautilus (NLS +1.56%) dropped 8% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year operating income of $44 million-$46 million, a 13% to 18% decline y/y, lower than a previous estimate of 5% to 7% growth.

Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +0.71%) sank 12% in after-hours trading after Sanofi Enzyme opted against exercising its exclusive option for ex-U.S. development and commercial rights to Voyager's VY-AADEC drug for the treatment of advanced Parkinson's disease.

MDC Partners (MDCA +3.24%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted Ebitda of $53.8 million, better than consensus of $52 million.

Unisys (UNS) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $666.3 million, better than consensus of $635.3 million.

Rent-A-Center (RCII +5.78%) tumbled 9% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted loss per share of -15 cents, wider than consensus of -3 cents a share.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 +0.14%) this morning are up +4.00 points (+0.16%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.32%, Dow Jones -0.36%, Nasdaq +0.23%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on negative carry-over from a slide in China's Shanghai Composite to a 1-month low after China's 10-year bond yield jumped to a near 3-year high amid mounting deleveraging concerns. Stocks were also undercut by a Bloomberg report that House Republicans are considering a 5-year phased reduction of the corporate tax, which would mean that only a fifth of the benefits would be seen in 2018.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.07%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Monday's closes: TYZ7 +13.50, FVZ7 +7.25. The Dec 10-year T-note on Monday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in 10-year German bunds to a 1-week high after German Oct CPI unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m, which was dovish for ECB policy. T-note prices were also supported by optimism that President Trump will appoint Jerome Powell as next Fed Chair, which would signal a continuation of Fed Chair Yellen's monetary policy direction.


The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.083 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.19%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22 (+0.19%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.356 (-0.38%), EUR/USD +0.0043 (+0.37%), USD/JPY -0.49 (-0.43%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Oct economic confidence rose +0.9 to a 16-1/2 year high of 114.0, and on the decline in the 10-year T-note yield, which weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Dec crude oil (CLZ17 -0.26%) this morning is down -10 cents (-0.18%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ17 -0.19%) is -0.0033 (-0.19%). Monday's closes: Dec WTI crude +0.25 (+0.46%), Dec gasoline -0.0042 (-0.24%). Dec crude oil and gasoline on Monday settled mixed with Dec crude at an 8-month high. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar, and by optimism that OPEC and Russia will agree to an extension of crude production cuts. Crude oil prices were undercut by the slide in the crack spread to a 4-session low, which may undercut crude demand from refineries to refine crude into gasoline.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ17 -0.29%) -3.7 (-0.29%), Dec silver (SIZ17 -0.07%) -0.017 (-0.10%) and Dec copper +0.008 (+0.24%). Monday's closes: Dec gold +5.9 (+0.46%), Dec silver +0.095 (+0.57%), Dec copper (HGZ17 -0.02%) +0.0085 (+0.27%). Metals on Monday closed higher on a weaker dollar and on weakness in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals.

(Click on image to enlarge)


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