Max Grigoryev
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Max Grigoryev in Fundamentality,

Zillow: Buy Straddle, Sell OTM options

We continue covering the pre-earnings of selected stocks and one more company which is going to report its earnings today is Zillow Group. A quick fact before: Z stock jumped 11% two times after the earnings - very first time in February after annual earnings call and the most recent on in May after Q1'16 report. This stock is super volatile after the earnings calls and we definitely shouldn't miss this chance to benefit from increased volatility. 

Zillow's stock is up 68% year-to-date, and it has an impressive uptrend. At the moment 8 analysts iterated buy recommendation, 12 - hold. According to WSJ, forecasted EPS is below zero and is equal to -5c:

However, there is no information regarding top-line revenue estimates. For the current quarter, the company sees revenue of $203 million to $208 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $15 million to $20 million. As far as we don't have even approximate numbers regarding their top-line financials, I assume that beating their own estimates could send the stock to the sky after-hours. I think that the best suggestion would to buy 39.5 straddle expiring Aug 12. However, as well as the strategy for ATVI, Zillow's case should contain the hedge as well. Selling OTM call and put options could be the best option. Initial outlay in this case will be the following: 


As we can see, the separate 39.5 straddle is expensive enough, it will cost you $375 per 100 contracts. However, we can offset it selling two OTM call and put options. Your profile table will have the following numbers:

Numbers you see in this table is % of your initial outlay. It means that if the stocks goes up 7% you can get 13.6% on your initial investment. But if the stock goes down more than 5.5%, you can increase your return from 13.6% up to 59.1%, which is quite impressive. I think that this strategy is too risky, however taking into consideration an absence of analysts top revenue estimates, beating their own estimates the stock will most likely soar.