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What The Fed Will Do Today: Gartman's Take

Last Friday, when futures were again in free fall, we issued a "Warning For The Bears", noting that world renowned contrarian indicator Dennis Gartman had turned short the S&P/long bonds and was "very worried in catholic terms:"

NEW RECOMMENDATION: we wish to sell the S&P futures short this morning, fearing that a major top has developed and that the recent consolidation in the stock market is precisely that: a consolidation before the next leg downward.

 

We’ll sell the S&P future short and will buy the December T-note at the same time, with the S&P trading 1933.00 as we write and with the Dec T-note future trading 127 ¼. We’ll risk no more than 1.5% on either position and we look for the consolidation in the S&P to resolve itself sharply lower as discussed at length above.

As expected, Gartman was promptly stopped out on his latest recommendation following a vicious snapback rally in a market ,which as we also warned over the weekend was positioned for the "mother of all a short squeezes".

So with that out of the way, many traders, all of whom are confused ahead of today's Fed rate decision, were eagerly looking for any fadable hints out of Gartman on what the Fed will not do today.

We now have the answer, unfortunately it will not provide much certainty ahead of what is "the most anticipated Fed decision" in a trader generation.

So then, what do we think the Fed shall do? We’ve not the faintest idea and we openly admit that fact. What the Fed will do and what the Fed should do are two wholly separate issues, for we believe strongly that the Fed should have begun to process of “normalizing” rates two years ago and has erred in not having done so, but at this point perhaps it is prudent to wait one or two or even three more months “just to be sure.”

 

The question is, were we voters on the FOMC what would we do? And the answer is, we’d probably vote to hold rates steady but we’d use the clearest and more certain language available to us to assure everyone that rates almost certainly will move higher before the year’s end. Further, we’d make certain that everyone in the markets knows that we needn’t call a press conference to make a change in the o/n funding rate and that it can… and almost certainly will… come as a surprise when the data has forced us to act.

So, hints of a rate hike then? Keep an eye on Fed Fund futures over the next few hours for the answer.