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What's in the Cards for B&G Foods (BGS) in Q1 Earnings?

B&G Foods, Inc. BGS is set to report first quarter 2016 results on Apr 28, after the markets closes.

Last quarter, the company had posted a negative surprise of 10.42%. However, the company surpassed estimates in three out of the past four quarters, resulting in an average positive surprise of 3.50%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.  

Factors to Consider

In Mar 2016, B&G Foods lowered its earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2016, issued at the fourth quarter conference call on Feb 25, following the closure of the public offering of its common stock. This shelf-stable and frozen food company closed the public offering of its common stock on Mar 15, which added 4.6 million shares of common stock outstanding. First quarter 2016 earnings per share are likely to be adversely impacted due to an increase in the number of shares outstanding.   

It is important to note that B&G Foods increased the pricing of half of the product lines by about 2% effective Jan 1, 2015. The impact of the increase in pricing, which drove revenues in 2015, will be absent in the soon-to-be reported quarter.  

Moreover, the company’s top line suffered due to weak volumes in the past and the trend is not likely to change in the soon-to-be reported quarter. Unfavorable effect of the Canadian currency is likely to have hurt sales in the region in the first quarter of 2016. However, the weakness in Canadian currency will reduce cost of goods sold for pure maple syrup business.

Earnings Whisper?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that B&G Foods is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP:  B&G Foods’ Earnings ESP is +7.84%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at 55 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged lower at 51 cents.

Zacks Rank: B&G Foods has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies in the consumer staples sector that can be considered as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

The Procter & Gamble Company PG has an Earnings ESP of +1.24% and a Zacks Rank #3

The Kraft Heinz Company KHC has an Earnings ESP of +4.92% and a Zacks Rank #2

Pinnacle Foods Inc. PF has an Earnings ESP of +5.0% and a Zacks Rank #3

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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
B&G FOODS CL-A (BGS): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PROCTER & GAMBL (PG): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PINNACLE FOODS (PF): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
KRAFT HEINZ CO (KHC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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