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Stalking AUD/USD to 0.72

AUD/USD got a boost this week after better-than-expected jobs data from Australia for October. After that reaction AUD/USD stalled at 0.7150 and retreated. However, we can see during the 11/12 session, price respected a bottom. This suggests further bullish outlook at least in the short-term


AUD/USD 4H Chart 11/12
(click to enlarge)

Let's stalk this pair as it pulls back, monitoring the 0.72 level. Here, price will likely be challenged by a previous support area and a falling trendline. If price stalls here and we see the 4H RSI above 70, and even better with a bearish divergence, we should be ready for another bearish swing at least towards the 0.7070 area with risk of falling toward the 0.6950 area, which represents a support area in September.

Now a break above 0.72 would shift the mode from bearish to a neutral-bullish mode. With the interest rate hike looming for the FOMC, I would be more cautious with the bullish outlook, and a bit more biased towards the bearish outlook in AUD/USD.