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Breakdown Or Bounce?

The commentary that I read this morning attributed most of yesterday's selling to rising rates, both domestic and foreign, and due to the fact that selling was overdue.

Cramer made the point on the podcast of his show last night that if we do get a selloff, it will probably be in the stocks we don't want anyway. He thinks the good stocks don't ever come down in price as much as we would like. That sounded right to me, but now I'm not so sure.

John Murphy keeps making the point that higher rates have a negative impact on Technology because it generally has high multiples, and higher rates compress multiples.

I wish I had more time to think about this.

The Short-Term Leader List

The strongest ETFs are blue, the additional leaders are green and the weakest are red. The S&P500 is the benchmark. Disclaimer: This list is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

This ETF showed up on my spreadsheet with improving technicals. The recent strength of the US Dollar may be partly responsible. I am not sure if this is an opportunity or a trap.

It looks like yet another dramatic move for the Gold Miners. It was just a couple months ago that they broke out, and it looked like they were off on a journey higher. Now, a few months later, its another break but this time to the downside. Again, it is more impact of the big move in the dollar. I can't really tell if this is a break down, or if it is just more bouncing between the highs and lows of the range like a game of pong.

Here is a look at the dollar. Recent strength in yields in every timeframe is probably behind this dollar strength. It is kind of scary that the ECRI is forecasting an economic slowdown just when yields are pushing higher, although it could mean a good opportunity for bonds is developing for late in the year. Seasonally, TLT tends to bottom out in December, and then its best months are January and February.


The ECRI index was pointing to weak economic growth in the months ahead, but the index has now bottomed out and is pointing higher.

  • The long-term outlook is improving.
  • The medium-term trend is up. The best period for buying is past.
  • The short-term trend is up. The short-term trend looks toppy again.

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a ...