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Don't Get 'Spooked' When Tesla Misses Earnings This Week

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Is Nomura getting cold feet on Tesla (TSLA - Get Report) with shares down 7.25% in five trading sessions and almost 18% from its all-time high near $390?

On Tuesday, Nomura analyst Romit Shah put out a new report titled, "Don't Get Spooked by 3Q." In this piece of research, he explains that Tesla will likely miss expectations on its upcoming earnings report, scheduled for release on November 1, the same day as Facebook (FB - Get Report) and a day ahead of Apple (AAPL - Get Report) .

In a nutshell, it should be anything but a boring week for tech.

Shah says the latest pullback in Tesla stock can be attributed to production of the Model 3 sedan. Or should we say the so-far bumpy production of the new vehicle. While manufacturing a new car is no easy task, the stock wasn't priced for Tesla to have any issues, and thus, the selloff makes some sense. Shah also attributes Tesla's workforce shakeup and concerns over autonomous driving developments as other catalysts for the recent pullback.

Incidentally, others have made the case that Tesla will beat earnings expectations.

Getting back to the quarter at hand, Shah acknowledged that Tesla's gross margins may come in below his current expectations of 17.8%. That's as Model X prices fall on lower volume, as well as the production issues already discussed with the Model 3.

The bright side? This should be the automaker's most difficult quarter in terms of the Model 3. It should also mark a trough in margins, Shah reasons. Deliveries, margins and cash flow should bottom this quarter and increase going forward.

And if Shah's name sounds familiar, it likely is. He's the one who slapped a buy rating and $500 price target on Tesla earlier this month. From current levels, it implies more than 56% upside. So is he getting cold feet? Perhaps not, but he is bracing for a less-than-stellar quarter.

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