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The Last Time Americans Felt This Good About Stocks, The Dot Com Bubble Burst 2 Months Later

Earlier today we noted that overall US Consumer Confidence, at least according to the Conference Board, smashed expectations and rose to the highest level since 2000.

 

The recent euphoria about the US economy is likely a continuation of the record partisan split, in which republicans love the current state of the economy, while democrats are convinced the US is facing an imminent collapse. Recall what UMich said just a few days earlier, when it took reported a near record confidence print:

The Current Economic Conditions component reached its highest level since 2000, largely due to improved personal finances. While current economic conditions were not affected by partisanship, this was not true for the component about future economic prospects: among Democrats, the Expectations Index at 55.3 signaled that a deep recession was imminent, while among Republicans the Index at 122.4 indicated a new era of robust economic growth was ahead.

But while overall economic confidence can be attributed to a variety of factors, things are far clearer when it comes to how Americans feel about the stock market, because as also disclosed by the Conference Board, Americans haven’t been this optimistic about US stocks since the start of 2000.

According to today's report, more than 47% of respondents said they expect equities to move higher in the next 12 months, a surge of nearly 50% compared to recent prints, prompted by the "animal spirits" unleased by the Trump election.

As Bloomberg observes, this was the largest share since January 2000, when optimism about stocks also peaked. Two months later, in March of 2000, the dot com bubble burst and a full-blown bear market ensued less than a year later.