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Valero Energy (VLO) Goes from Bearish Breakout to a Potential Bullish Breakout

Last time we looked at VLO, we observed a bearish breakout. We assessed downside risk to at least 60 and maybe even lower to 57.50. However, price did not extend the breakout to 60, and is now threatening to breakout to the upside, which would signal bullish continuation.

VLO Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Failed Bearish Breakout:

- Looking at the daily chart, price failed to extend the bearish breakout. 
- It respected a falling channel support. 
- Now, it is about to test the falling channel resistance. 
Bullish Scenario:
- A breakout should continue the prevailing uptrend and put pressure on the 2017 high around 71.
- Looking at the weekly chart below, we can see that VLO has been in an uptrend since 2011. 
- But there was a sharp bearish correction in 2016 when price fell from around 73 to around 47. 
- Since tagging 47, price rebounded sharply in the second half of 2016. 
- 2017 has so far been a choppy falling channel, which could be viewed as a flag pattern in the weekly chart.
- This combination of price action suggest that there is strong upside risk and that the 73 high might be tested and even broken in 2017.

VLO Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)