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Tech Talk for Monday October 19th 2015

 

Economic News This Week

Canadian election is held today.

September Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase to 1,142,000 units from 1,126,000 units in August

Bank of Canada interest rate announcement at 9:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to maintain the rate at 0.50%.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 260,000 from 255,000 last week

August Canadian Retail Sales to be released at8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.5% in July.

September Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 5.36 million units from 5.31 million units in August

September Leading Economic Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to be unchanged versus a gain of 0.1% in August.

Canada’s September Consumer Price Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to remain unchanged versus no change in August.

 

Earnings News This Week

 

The Bottom Line

The easy money in equity markets and economic sensitive sectors has been made already for the current intermediate up cycle. Third quarter reports will have an influence on equity markets during the next two weeks, one way or the other. Earnings released to date have been mixed. Beyond the earnings report season, seasonal influences turn positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate seasonally attractive equities and economic sensitive sectors on weakness between now and the end of the month.

 

Equities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 16th 2015

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

The S&P 500 Index gained 18.22 points (0.90%) last week. Intermediate trend changed last week to up from neutral on a move above 2020.86. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average inched up to 62.80% from 62.60% last week. Percent is trending up, but is slightly overbought.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 42.00% from 39.60%. Percent continues to trend up.

Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 52.80% from 50.00% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index continues to trend up.

Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week to 49.39% from 48.18% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains in an intermediate uptrend

The TSX Composite Index dropped 126.26 points (0.90%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral last week (Score: -2). The Index remains above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1). Short term momentum indicators are mixed (Score: 0). Technical score fell last week to 1 from 4.

Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average dropped last week to 65.18% from 74.09%. Percent is intermediate overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average slipped last week to 29.15% from 33.20%. Percent remains in an intermediate uptrend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 131.48 points (0.77%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remains at 6.

Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks increased last week to 70.00% from 63.33% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains in an intermediate uptrend, but is overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 44.00% from 41.49% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains in an intermediate uptrend.

The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 56.22 points (1.16%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained at -2.

The Russell 2000 Index slipped 3.05 points (0.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to -4 from -2.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 165.55 points (2.11%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Technical score slipped last week. to -3 from 0.

The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index slipped 5.50 points (0.10%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on Friday on a brief move above 5,314.50. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Technical score improved last week to 1 from -1

The Nikkei Average dropped 146.87 points (0.80%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative from neutral. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Technical score dropped to -3 from 0 last week.

Europe iShares added $0.07 (0.17%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Technical score improved last week to 3 from 2.

The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 208.20 points (6.54%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above 3,256.74. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score advanced to 6 from 0.

Emerging markets ETF advanced $0.31 (0.86%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.

 

Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.16 (0.17%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral on a move below 94.19. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold.

The Euro eased 0.09 (0.08%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.

The Canadian Dollar gained US 0.19 cents (0.25%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.

The Japanese Yen added 0.52 (0.63%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 16th 2015

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

The CRB Index fell 3.24 points (1.60%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score fell last week to 0 from 4

Gasoline dropped $0.07 per gallon (4.96%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. Gas fell below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped to -6 from 0.

Crude Oil dropped $1.77 per barrel (3.58%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Crude remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped to 2 from 6.

Natural Gas dropped $0.09 per MBtu (3.58%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative the S&P 500 Index remains negative. “Natty” remain below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Technical score slipped to -5 from -4.

The S&P Energy Index added 3.77 points (0.74%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Technical score slipped to 5 from 6.

The Philadelphia Oil Services Index dropped 7.10 points (3.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Technical score dropped to 1 from 4.

Gold added $27.50 per ounce (2.38%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Gold remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 6 from 2. Strength relative to Gold is neutral.

Silver added $0.29 per ounce (1.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Silver remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained at 6.Strength relative to Gold remains positive.

The AMEX Gold Bug Index added 0.76 (0.57%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remains at 6. Strength relative to gold remains positive.

Platinum gained $40.50 per ounce (4.12%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength improved to positive from neutral. PLAT remains above its 20 day MA. Momentum: Positive

Palladium dropped $12.40 per ounce (1.74%) last week. Trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. PALL remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to gold turned neutral.

Copper slipped $0.02 per lb. (0.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Copper remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 0.

The TSX Metals & Mining Index fell 47.05 points (9.56%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to 2 from 4.

Lumber added another 15.70 points (6.48%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from down on a move above 249.90. Relative strength changed to positive from neutral.

The Grain ETN lost $0.33 (1.00%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. Units fell below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped to -2

The Agriculture ETF slipped $0.43 (0.88%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained neutral. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

 

Interest Rates

The yield on 10 year Treasuries dropped 7.6 basis points (3.62%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.

Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF gained $1.65 (1.35%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average.

 

Other Issues

The VIX Index fell another 1.86 (10.89%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average.

Third quarter reports are off to a mixed start. 58 S&P 500 companies have reported to date: 81% exceeded consensus earnings and 50% exceeded consensus sales. This week is the second busiest week for earnings reports

Short and intermediate technical indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of rolling over.

Economic data this week focuses on the housing industry.

Seasonal influences for equity markets and economic sensitive sectors frequently turn positive at this time of year.

International news is expected to be relatively quiet this week.

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 16th 2015


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

 

StockTwits Released on Friday @equityclock

Gap between actual days of supply of oil and average now highest of the year, almost 7 days above average.

Technicals for S&P 500 stocks to 10:30 AM: Bullish. Breakouts: $MAT, $CBG, $STI, $WY, $BMY, $ESRX, $NLSN, $ADBE, $LVLT, $TEL, $YHOO, $ED, $EQIX

The Technology sector is leading U.S. equities this morning. Breakouts include: $ADBE, $LVLT, $TEL, $YHOO, EQIX and $FB

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.