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Stalking the NZD/USD Short

We recently discussed in detail the trade idea of shorting NZD/USD at a confluence of resistance. We followed up noting a critical support at 0.7250. Indeed, NZD/USD fell below this support and the bearish swing has started. 

NZD/USD 1H Chart

(click to enlarge)

- The break below 0.7250 essentially completed a price top. 
- We noted that price might bounce off of 0.72, and we can see that NZD/USD rebounded even before reaching 0.72.
- Now, as price rebounds, we should monitor this 0.7250-0.7275 area for resistance.
- A break above 0.7280 might invalidate our bearish outlook.
- The first bearish target is around toward 0.71, with an extension that might reach down to 0.7050-60.
- This is a conservative downside projection, considering the possibility that NZD/USD is turning bullish. 
- Looking back to price action since late 2015, NZD/USD has indeed been pushing higher, from a lot around 0.62 to a high of almost 0.75 in 2016.
- Price action has since been sideways, but there are no signs that NZD/USD has turned bearish. 
- If 0.71 is the conservative target within a potential bullish mode, the 0.69 area is a viable target as well, but within the sideways mode, which NZD/USD has been in for the past year. 

NZD/USD Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)