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USD/JPY - Key Resistance Holds; More Bearish Correction Ahead

The USD/JPY made a very sharp decline during the 8/12 session before rebounding from near 123.80. Yesterday, I noted that 124.50 will be a key resistance and that the market should not close above that during the 8/13 session if it were still bearish in the short-term. Well, price cracked 124.50 but retreated from 124.60. The cluster of 200- 100- and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) held as resistance. The RSI held under 60. We are likely going to see another bearish correction swing. 

USD/JPY 1H chart 8/13
(click to enlarge)

The technical picture in the 1H chart does indeed point lower. However, when we look at the daily chart, we can see that prevailing trend is bullish. We can argue that USD/JPY has entered a period of consolidation. Now, this consolidation seems to have established a range between 120.40 and 125.85. The July swing brought price above the moving averages, but it might still be in consolidation. 

Now, if there is a bearish outlook in the short-term, let's not be too aggressive because of the prevailing bullish mode. The 121.90-122 support/resistance pivot area where the 100-day SMA resides seem to be a good conservative bearish target if price can move below the August low of 123.78. If price does slide down to this 122 area, I would actually consider buying.