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Is Tyco Now a Bargain?

Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) has seen its share of ups and downs over the years. It has also seen its share or special situations and recoveries. Now that shares have pulled back handily from the highs, at least one analyst report is saying that the recent relative weakness offers buying opportunity.

Argus is truly an independent research firm. The firm makes its money by conducting independent research rather than via investment banking, so it has no obvious conflicts of interest. Argus reiterated its Buy rating on Tyco on Tuesday, and it also has an above-consensus $48 price target.

What stands out now is that Tyco shares have underperformed the market over the last quarter. Ahead of Tuesday, the shares were down almost 6% while the S&P 500 had gained 1.1%. Also noted were issues around Tyco’s earnings report. Argus noted that the report from July 31 of $0.59 in earnings per share was up 9% and that it exceeded management’s guidance of $0.55 to $0.57 — and that it beat the consensus of $0.56 EPS.

Argus pointed out that management tightened its 2015 EPS guidance to $2.23 to $2.25 per share, which was only a 2-cent trim off the top-end of that range. The reason was said to be due to currency headwinds and due to weakness in its oil and gas end markets. Argus points out that this revised guidance still represents a 12.5% increase at the midpoint of the range.

The recent price is about 15% below their 52-week high, and Tyco is said to have substantial cash on the balance sheet that it can use for stock repurchases or acquisitions. While Tyco has a buyback plan, it did not repurchase shares in its third quarter even though it has $1 billion remaining in that plan.

Argus also said that it expects to see margin expansion and also expects to see earnings growth in the coming quarters. Tuesday’s report even noted a positive outlook on the company’s large sales backlog.

Excluding currency effects, Tyco’s revenue rose by 1%. That reflected a 1% organic sales decline, as well as 2% growth from acquisitions. Argus ended its valuation analysis as follows:

On a technical basis, the shares have been in a bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows that dates to June 2014. To value the stock on a fundamental basis, we use peer and historical multiple comparisons. Tyco shares are trading at 15.8-times projected 2016 earnings, slightly below the mid-point of the historical range of 6 to 27. On a price/sales basis, the shares are trading above the midpoint of the five-year range. The dividend yield of about 2.3% is at the high end of the five-year range and slightly above the peer average. Compared to the peer group, Tyco’s multiples are in line with or below industry averages. Our comparative multiple analysis points to a fair value of $48 per share, which remains our target price.

A $48 price target leaves more than 25% implied upside to Tyco’s closing price of $38.27. Then there is the 2.3% dividend yield to consider. With a $16.1 billion market cap, Tyco has a 52-week range of $35.92 to $45.24.

Tyco has a consensus price target of $43.73, with a median target of $44.00, and a street-high price target of $50.00. Its lowest analyst price target is $36.00, down only $2.27 from its closing price.

By Jon C. Ogg


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