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Big 5 Sporting (BGFV): Will Q1 Earnings Fears Come True?

Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. BGFV is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 3. In the last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 15.8%.

Additionally, this sporting goods retailer delivered average positive earnings surprises of 9.1% in the trailing four quarters. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.


 

Factors Influencing This Quarter

Though Big 5 Sporting reported solid results for the fourth quarter of 2015, the company provided a cautious outlook for the first quarter of 2016. Management stated that the first quarter turned challenging in February owing to unseasonably warm weather in major markets, which weighed on the company’s winter business. Also, non-winter product category sales remained soft as a result of intense promotions and a tough retail environment.

While the company believes its solid product range positions it well for the spring selling season, it expects results in the first quarter to be impacted by the persistence of the aforementioned headwinds. Also, the company expects comps in the low negative single-digit to low positive single-digit range. Moreover, the company envisions the bottom line to range from a net loss of 5 cents per share to earnings of 2 cents.

Earnings and sales in the first quarter are also anticipated to be impacted by tough year-over-year comparisons on account of the unfavorable Easter shift to first-quarter 2016, when stores remain closed, and a calendar shift due to which 2015 had an extra week. Further, earnings are expected to bear the brunt of lower product margins and expense deleverage. These factors clearly indicate a tough first quarter for Big 5 Sporting, keeping us skeptical on the results.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Big 5 Sporting is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: Big 5 Sporting has an Earnings ESP of -200.00%. This is because while the Most Accurate estimate is a loss of one cent per share, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 1 cent.

Zacks Rank: Big 5 Sporting carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements:

Church & Dwight Co. Inc. CHD, scheduled to report earnings on May 5, has an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Home Depot Inc. HD, scheduled to report earnings on May 17, has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Urban Outfitters Inc. URBN, scheduled to report earnings on May 18, has an Earnings ESP of +8.00% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
BIG 5 SPORTING (BGFV): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
HOME DEPOT (HD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
URBAN OUTFITTER (URBN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CHURCH & DWIGHT (CHD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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