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What to Expect from Autodesk (ADSK) in Q1 Earnings?

Autodesk, Inc. ADSK is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2017 results on May 19. In the last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 42.86%. The company has delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 23.22% in the trailing four quarters. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Autodesk’s business transition (from licenses to cloud-based services) is boosting its subscriptions and deferred revenues. Also, the company remains focused on undertaking more cost-cutting initiatives as a part of its business transition. It’s noteworthy that though the transition is still underway, the company has started seeing strong growth in new subscription additions.

In Apr 2016, Autodesk acquired Solid Angle, an Arnold developing company. Arnold is an advanced, ray-tracing image provider for creating superior 3D animation and visual effects. While this acquisition is expected to be a long-term growth driver, it would likely have a negative financial impact in the to-be-reported quarter.

In addition, the company’s profitability may also be affected by increasing investments in cloud-based infrastructure and marketing initiatives. The other concerns are foreign exchange fluctuations and competition in the cloud-computing domain from the likes of Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, Microsoft Corp. MSFT and Google.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2017, Autodesk expects revenues in a range of $500 million - $520 million.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Autodesk is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Autodesk’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 26 cents.

Zacks Rank: Autodesk has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stock to Consider

Here is a company, which you may consider as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Best Buy Co., Inc. BBY, with an Earnings ESP of +2.94% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

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