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Silver Awaits Consolidation Breakout

Gold continues to rally in October, but silver has been holding steady around the 17.50 handle. Let's take a look at the 4H chart to assess the technical conditions. 

Silver 4H Chart 10/21

(click to enlarge)

After tagging 16.67, which is now the 2014-low, silver has rebounded slightly to the 17.72 area. Then it has formed a consolidation range between 17.05 and 17.72. The 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4H chart are all clustered together with price hugging them. This is an example of congestion. 

A break below 17.05 would likely revive the downtrend, first toward 16.67. 

A break above 17.85 would clear the October consolidation high as well as the 200-period SMA in the 4H chart. This would be a price bottom signal, which suggests some bullish correction. If we get a pullback from the 18.00 handle, which might provided some resistance in the short-term, we need to see if price can hold above the 17.50 area. Ability to do so will further confirm a bullish correction.