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RBA Holds Rate and AUD/NZD Stays Asleep

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its Official Cash Rate at 2.50%, as expected by most. It noted that it might take a while before jobs data shows consistent improvement. This is one reason RBA governor, Glenn Stevens, said that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates". In other words the RBA is no in a hurry to raise rates. Let's focus on employment, and wage growth first. 

AUD/NZD has been in a very tight range in the past few sessions, and the RBA event risk did not budge it. It remains within the 1.0924 and 1.0964 range.Note that the 1.0964 resistance was a previous support pivot, showing that there is a bearish bias in the near-term. 

(AUD/NZD 4H Chart 8/5)


When you look at the daily chart, you can see a market that is trading in a rising channel in 2014 following a bearish 2013. This structure is so far indicative of a correction, which suggests there is medium-term bearish bias especially with price near the channel resistance. Therefore a break below 1.0924 should be a sign that the structure is maintained. 

The bearish outlook could be to the channel support, or at least the 1.0825-1.0850 area, which is where the 200-, 100-, 50-day SMAs reside, all clustered together. If price holds above 1.0850, it still has a chance to change the structure with a strong rally thereafter. But a break below these moving averages invalidates this bullish scenario.

A change in structure would likely be accompanied by the RSI holding above 40. That would reflect maintenance o the bullish momentum.

(AUD/NZD Daily Chart 8/5)

Fundamental Factors Ahead:
New Zealand Jobs data on Wednesday and Australian jobs data on Thursday will likely help AUD/NZD break out of its current 
doldrums.