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Netflix Drops on Weak User Outlook: ETFs to Watch

Netflix (NFLX), the world's largest video streaming company, dampened investors’ mood with its first-quarter results after the closing bell on Monday. Though the company surpassed our earnings estimates and added higher-than-expected subscribers during the last quarter, it disappointed investors with weak a subscriber outlook for the ongoing quarter.   

Netflix Q1 Earnings in Detail

The company reported earnings per share of 6 cents, easily beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents and a penny higher than the year-ago earnings. Revenues climbed 24.4% year over year to $1.958 billion but missed our estimate of $1.965 billion (see: all the Technology ETFs here).

Netflix added a record 6.74 million total subscribers in the first quarter, crushing its own projection of 6.1 million additions. This is primarily thanks to the launch of a number of shows. These include Making a Murderer (a late December debut), Fuller House (February), House of Cards Season 4 (March) and Daredevil Season 2 (March), a diverse mix of new films, documentaries, series and kids’ shows. Both U.S. and International additions of 2.23 million and 4.51 million, respectively, were better than expected.

For the ongoing second quarter, the company expects to add a total of 2.5 million subscribers, including 0.5 million in the U.S. and 2 million internationally. This would mark the smallest customer growth in two years and is well below the additions of 0.9 million in the U.S. and 2.37 million internationally in the year-ago period. Subscriber additions are also below the StreetAccount expectations of 0.586 million in the U.S. and 3.5 million internationally. This is because Netflix’s plans to implement a price hike of $2 gradually over the year would impact subscriber additions. Additionally, slowdown in international additions from the year-ago period will be due to tough comparisons against launches in Australia and New Zealand.

Netflix continues to extend its original content offerings and launch new television shows and movies. For the second quarter, it expects to launch new seasons of original series, including Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Bloodline, and Orange is the New Black and debut original films like The Do­Over, Special Correspondents, The Fundamentals of Caring, and Brahman Naman. Additionally, the company will foray into the talk show genre with Chelsea, starring Chelsea Handler (read: Successful ETF Launches of Q1).

If this isn’t enough, the company is stepping up the production of non‐English language original productions following the success of Club de Cuervos and Narcos last year. As such, it is looking to launch the French series Marseille on May 5 and the Japanese original series Hibana globally in June.

Market Impact

Weak subscriber outlook triggered a sell-off in Netflix stock in both after-market hour trading yesterday and pre-market trading today. Shares of NFLX tumbled as much as 12% in after-market trade and over 9% in pre-market trade at the time of writing.

This sluggish trading could continue for the ETFs having higher allocation to the online streaming giant. Below, we have highlighted these ETFs in detail and investors should closely monitor the movement in these funds.

ARK Web x.0 ETF (ARKW)

This is an actively managed fund focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the shift in technology infrastructure from hardware and software to cloud. The fund holds 34 stocks in its basket with Netflix taking the second position at 6% of total assets. From a sector look, Internet & mobile applications as well as software & programming collectively make up for nearly half of the portfolio while Internet & catalogue retail  and semiconductors round off the next two spots with a double-digit exposure each. The ETF has amassed $12.7 million in its asset base and trades in a paltry average daily volume of 2,000 shares. The expense ratio comes in at 0.95%

First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index (FDN)

This is one of the most popular and liquid ETFs in the broad tech space with AUM of $3 billion and average daily volume of more than 923,000 shares. The fund tracks the Dow Jones Internet Composite Index and charges 54 bps in fees per year. In total, the fund holds 41 stocks with Netflix taking the fifth position at 5.2%. Internet mobile applications account for half of the portfolio while Internet & catalog retail makes up for 22%. The product has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or ‘Buy’ rating with a High risk outlook (read: 6 Top-Ranked ETFs to Rebound on Bargain Hunt).
 
PowerShares Nasdaq Internet Portfolio (PNQI)

This fund offers exposure to the largest and most-liquid companies that are engaged in Internet-related businesses by tracking the Nasdaq Internet Index. It holds about 87 stocks with Netflix taking the sixth spot in its basket with 4.3% allocation. Internet mobile applications dominate the portfolio with 62% share, closely followed by Internet & catalog retail at 37%. The product has AUM of $278.9 million and trades in a light volume of about 40,000 shares a day. It charges 60 bps in fees per year and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 with a High risk outlook (read: 7 Best Stocks & ETFs of 7-Year Bull Run).
 
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)

This is also an actively managed fund that seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in companies that benefit from the development of new products or services, technological improvement and advancements in scientific research relating to what ARKK believes are genomic companies, industrial innovation companies or Web x.0 companies. In total, the fund holds 41 securities in its basket. Netflix occupies the sixth position with 3.9% share. Here, biotechnology takes the top spot at 18%, followed by Internet & mobile applications, technology hardware & software, and software programing. The product trades in a paltry volume of 1,000 shares and charges an annual fee of 0.95%. It has accumulated $8.0 million in its asset base so far.

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NETFLIX INC (NFLX): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ARK- WEB XO ETF (ARKW): ETF Research Reports
 
FT-DJ INTRNT IX (FDN): ETF Research Reports
 
PWRSH-ND INTRNT (PNQI): ETF Research Reports
 
ARK-INNOVATION (ARKK): ETF Research Reports
 
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