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Will BP plc (BP) Beat Estimates this Earnings Season?

Oil giant BP plc BP is expected to report first-quarter 2016 earnings on Apr 26, before the opening bell.

Over the last four quarters, the company’s average earnings surprise was a positive 64.26%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that BPis likely to beat estimates because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Positive Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +65.39%. The Most Accurate estimate is of a loss of 9 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 26 cents.

Zacks Rank: BPcarries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which when combined with positiveEarningsESP, makes us confident about an earnings beat.

Note that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings.

Conversely, the Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 and 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement. 

What is Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings?

London, UK-based BP is one of the largest energy companies in the world. The company provides its customers with fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, retail services and petrochemical products. BP’s massive size and diversified operations should support strong earnings.

BP has been following the strategy of divesting its non-core assets and shifting its entire focus on core assets with robust growth potential. By focusing on refineries which provide the greatest competitive advantage, the company is likely to bring a turnaround and is expected to improve returns.

BP has already sold the refineries in Carson, CA and Texas City, TX, thereby shedding half of its U.S. capacity. It has, however, retained three refineries – Cherry Point, Toledo (co-owned with Husky Energy), and Whiting – with the greatest competitive advantage. These refineries are expected to improve returns for the oil behemoth.

Additionally, the company expects to see increased exposure to heavy crude differentials in the U.S. owing to ramped up heavy crude processing at the Whiting refinery.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the energy sector with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Enable Midstream Partners, LP ENBL with an Earnings ESP of +21.05% and a Zacks Rank #1.

SunCoke Energy Inc. SXC with an Earnings ESP of +150% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK with an Earnings ESP of +25% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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ENABLE MIDSTRM (ENBL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
BP PLC (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CHESAPEAKE ENGY (CHK): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
SUNCOKE ENERGY (SXC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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