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What Awaits Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) in Q1 Earnings?

Puma Biotechnology, Inc. PBYI is expected to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 9.

Puma Biotechnology’s track record has been disappointing so far. The company missed earnings estimates in three of the four trailing quarters and met the same in one, with an average negative earnings surprise of 17.51%.



Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.

Factors at Play

With no approved product in its portfolio, Puma Biotechnology is not expected to generate any revenue in the first quarter, as was the case in the previous quarters.

Puma Biotechnology’s most advanced candidate, neratinib (PB272), a potent irreversible tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is being evaluated in two formulations – oral and intravenous. Currently, the company is focused on the development of the oral version of the candidate, for human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, and other solid tumors with a HER2 mutation.

The company expects to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for neratinib for the treatment of extended adjuvant breast cancer, in patients who were previously treated with a regimen of Roche Holding AG’s RHHBY Herceptin (trastuzumab), in mid-2016.

Meanwhile, several phase II combination studies on neratinib are ongoing for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer, and HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer that has metastasized to the brain.

Like any other development-stage biotechnology company, Puma Biotechnology is likely to see an increase in research and development expenses due to higher spending on pipeline development.

We expect investor focus to remain on further updates on the company’s pipeline.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Puma Biotechnology is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to likely beat expectations. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of $1.86.

Zacks Rank: Puma Biotechnology currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Although the company’s Zacks Rank #3 enhances the predictive power of the ESP, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

The Earnings ESP for Impax Laboratories Inc. IPXL is +8.89% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on May 10.

The Earnings ESP for Jazz Pharmaceuticals Public Limited Co. JAZZ is +6.11% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on May 10.

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PUMA BIOTECHNLG (PBYI): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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